Al-Nassr 4-1 Al-Adalah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al-Adalah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Al-Nassr welcome Al-Adalah to Mrsool Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 11 October 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr's home record at Mrsool Park: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Adalah have recorded 1W 1D 4L from 6 outings — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Adalah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Adalah have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.63 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 0.67. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Adalah trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Nassr 17% | Al-Adalah 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 50% | Al-Adalah 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.36 xG and Al-Adalah 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.014 / defence 0.836 | Al-Adalah attack 0.706 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.038. Data: 36 Al-Nassr games / 6 Al-Adalah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 29% | Al-Adalah 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Adalah 6.25. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Al-Adalah's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 60% | Al-Adalah 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Adalah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Oct 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 29% | Al-Adalah 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 35% | xG Al-Nassr 1.36 / Al-Adalah 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.014 / def 0.836 | Al-Adalah attack 0.706 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Al-Adalah xG
35%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Adalah kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Adalah kicked off at 18:30 on Tuesday 11 October 2022 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Adalah?
Al-Nassr 4 - 1 Al-Adalah.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Adalah being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Adalah part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Adalah is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Adalah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 54% chance of winning, Al-Adalah a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Adalah?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Adalah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Adalah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Adalah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Adalah in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Al-Adalah (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.01) and Al-Adalah's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Adalah's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
54%
1.84
29%
3.39
16%
6.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
1.97
0.61
Al-Adalah xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
6.19
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
29%
3.39
4%
24.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 11.6 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Adalah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Adalah expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.61 for Al-Adalah, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Adalah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Nassr come into this having played 6 games, going 4W 1D 1L for 2.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Adalah sit at 0.67 PPG from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Adalah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Al-Adalah — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Nassr's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Adalah have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Al-Adalah are on 0.50 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al-Adalah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Adalah in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 games (2.17 PPG), while Al-Adalah have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Adalah away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.33 PPG; Al-Adalah away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Adalah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Al-Adalah in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
0
Al-Adalah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Adalah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 2, Al-Adalah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Adalah last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2023, when Al-Adalah 0-5 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Adalah?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Al-Adalah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Nassr 33% BTTS, Al-Adalah 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Nassr and 33% for Al-Adalah.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Al-Adalah in 33%; Al-Nassr have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Adalah in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Adalah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Adalah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 33% of Al-Adalah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Adalah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Nassr's recent games and 33% of Al-Adalah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Adalah tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Adalah in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al-Adalah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Adalah 4-1 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.36 xG and Al-Adalah 0.61 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.01 / defence 0.84 against Al-Adalah attack 0.71 / defence 1.12, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 29% | Al-Adalah 16%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 50%, Al-Adalah 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Adalah's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Adalah (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.