Al Najma 0-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Najma vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Najma and Al-Ittihad FC meet at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 September 2025 at 16:40 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Najma have collected 0.00 PPG across 2 Pro League outings this season: 0W 0D 2L. Last five: L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al Najma have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Al-Ittihad FC are the stronger side — 2.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Al Najma register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Al-Ittihad FC in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Najma 1.38 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Najma attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.365 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.433. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — the away xG of 2.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 2 Al Najma games / 36 Al-Ittihad FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Najma 23% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 57%. Fair-value odds: Al Najma 4.35 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 2.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.63 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Najma vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 16:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Najma 23% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG Al Najma 1.38 / Al-Ittihad FC 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: Al Najma attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.365 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al Najma xG
Expected Goals
2.25
Al-Ittihad FC xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Najma vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Najma vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 16:40 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Najma vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Najma 0 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Najma vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Najma vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Najma vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Najma vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Najma a 23% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 57% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Najma vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Najma and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Najma vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Najma and Al-Ittihad FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Najma and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Najma (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Najma's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.36x) against Al Najma's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 2.25.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 1-3 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
23%
4.36
20%
5.01
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
1 – 3
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al Najma xG
Total xG
3.63
2.25
Al-Ittihad FC xG
4.36
23%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
11%
9.49
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
2%
41.40
14%
6.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Najma vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Al Najma and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al Najma and 2.25 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Najma vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Najma's recent record stands at 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Najma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 0L across 2 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Najma heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Najma are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 4.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Najma have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad FC in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Najma
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Najma and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Najma have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Najma
0
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Najma and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Najma have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Najma and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al Najma.
Who has won more matches between Al Najma and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Najma home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Najma play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al Najma's games and 100% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Najma vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al Najma's matches and 100% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al Najma and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Najma have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Najma 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Najma 0-1 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.38 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.25 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Najma fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.36 / defence 1.02, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Najma 23% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 57%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 100%, Al-Ittihad FC 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Najma managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ittihad FC managed 1 against a 4.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.