Al Kholood 2-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Kholood at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Kholood vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Damac travel to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to take on Al Kholood. The game is scheduled for Thursday 18 September 2025, 16:40 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Kholood have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Kholood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Al Kholood have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Al Kholood are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Damac — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Damac's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Kholood 0.90 PPG, Damac 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al Kholood have won 0, Damac 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2025, ended 1–3 with Damac winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Kholood trading profile (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Damac trading profile (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 58% versus Damac 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 56% | Damac 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.36 xG and Damac 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.960 / defence 0.945 | Damac attack 0.860 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.521. Data: 36 Al Kholood games / 36 Damac games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 40% | Draw 26% | Damac 34%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Damac 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Kholood are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Kholood offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Kholood 50% | Damac 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Sep 2025, 16:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 40% | Draw 26% | Damac 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Al Kholood 1.36 / Damac 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.960 / def 0.945 | Damac attack 0.860 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.521 • Poisson stance: Al Kholood (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Damac xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Damac kick off?
Al Kholood vs Damac kicked off at 16:40 on Thursday 18 September 2025 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Damac?
Al Kholood 2 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al Kholood vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Damac part of?
Al Kholood vs Damac is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 40% chance of winning, Damac a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Kholood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al Kholood and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Damac?
Record (2 meetings): Al Kholood 0W | Draws 0 | Damac 2W.
What form are Al Kholood and Damac in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Damac (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Kholood's attack rating (0.96) and Damac's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Kholood Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.79
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
2.59
1.24
Damac xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
9%
11.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.24 for Damac, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Kholood's recent record stands at 12W 4D 20L from 36 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Kholood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 18L across 36 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Kholood on 1.11 PPG, Damac on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Kholood have managed 8W 2D 7L from 17 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Al Kholood are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Damac's away record stands at 3W 4D 10L across 17 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Kholood come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Kholood are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.08 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Early Season
Damac
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 12W 4D 20L in their last 36 games (1.11 PPG), while Damac have gone 9W 9D 18L in their last 36 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Damac away?
Al Kholood's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.53 PPG; Damac away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Kholood's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Kholood
1
Draws
2
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Damac?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 1, Damac have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Damac 0-0 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 47%, Damac 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al Kholood) and 47% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al Kholood have failed to score in 29% of games; Damac in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Al Kholood's recent matches and 47% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Kholood vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al Kholood's recent games and 47% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Kholood and Damac tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Damac in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Kholood edge out Damac 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Kholood beat Damac 2-1 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.36 xG and Damac 1.24 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.96 / defence 0.94 against Damac attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 40% | Draw 26% | Damac 34%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 56%, Damac 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.11 PPG, Damac 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.