Al Kholood 1-3 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Kholood at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Kholood vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Damac travel to Ar-Rass Stadium to take on Al Kholood. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 April 2025, 17:05 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Kholood have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ar-Rass Stadium, Al Kholood have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al Kholood are significantly better at Ar-Rass Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Damac — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al Kholood are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al Kholood have won 0, Damac 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Damac winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Kholood trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Damac trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 59% versus Damac 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 56% | Damac 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.31 xG and Damac 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.913 / defence 1.134 | Damac attack 0.694 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.287. Data: 27 Al Kholood games / 61 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 43% | Draw 29% | Damac 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Damac 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Kholood are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Kholood offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 50% | Damac 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Apr 2025, 17:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 43% | Draw 29% | Damac 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Kholood 1.31 / Damac 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.913 / def 1.134 | Damac attack 0.694 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Al Kholood (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Damac xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Damac kick off?
Al Kholood vs Damac kicked off at 17:05 on Friday 18 April 2025 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Damac?
Al Kholood 1 - 3 Damac.
Where is Al Kholood vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Damac part of?
Al Kholood vs Damac is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 43% chance of winning, Damac a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Kholood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Kholood and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Damac?
Record (1 meetings): Al Kholood 0W | Draws 0 | Damac 1W.
What form are Al Kholood and Damac in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Damac (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Kholood's attack rating (0.91) and Damac's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Kholood Win
43%
2.34
29%
3.46
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
2.32
1.01
Damac xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
8%
13.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.01 for Damac, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Kholood's recent record stands at 9W 4D 14L from 27 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 13L across 27 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Kholood on 1.15 PPG, Damac on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Kholood have managed 6W 2D 5L from 13 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Damac's away record stands at 2W 3D 8L across 13 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Kholood come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Kholood are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.11 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 9W 4D 14L in their last 27 games (1.15 PPG), while Damac have gone 7W 7D 13L in their last 27 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Damac away?
Al Kholood's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.54 PPG; Damac away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Kholood's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Kholood
1
Draws
2
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Damac?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 1, Damac have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Damac 0-0 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 54%, Damac 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al Kholood) and 46% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al Kholood have failed to score in 31% of games; Damac in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al Kholood's recent matches and 46% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Kholood vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al Kholood's recent games and 46% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Kholood and Damac tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Damac in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Kholood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al Kholood 1-3 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.31 xG and Damac 1.01 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Damac outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.91 / defence 1.13 against Damac attack 0.69 / defence 1.00, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 43% | Draw 29% | Damac 28%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Damac win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 56%, Damac 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.15 PPG, Damac 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Al Kholood (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Damac (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.