Al Kholood 2-4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Kholood host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Kholood — All Games: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Kholood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record: 9W 1D 0L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Al Kholood in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 50% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Kholood 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 0.88 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.899 / defence 1.320 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.481 / defence 0.699. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.272. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.699 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.481 — the away xG of 2.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 Al Kholood games / 38 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 11% | Draw 16% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 72%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 9.09 | Draw 6.25 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.39. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 11% | Draw 16% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 54% | xG Al Kholood 0.88 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.49 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.899 / def 1.320 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.481 / def 0.699 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
2.49
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
54%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Kholood 2 - 4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 11% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 72% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-D-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Kholood's attack at 0.90x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 2.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-3 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
11%
8.87
16%
6.14
72%
1.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 3
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
3.37
2.49
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
8.87
11%
Home win
6.14
16%
Draw
1.38
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
8%
12.03
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
1%
106.61
30%
3.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Al Kholood and 2.49 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Kholood come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Al Kholood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit at 3.00 PPG from 4 outings (4W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Kholood are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 3.00 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 4W 0D 0L in their last 4 (3.00 PPG).
Have Al Kholood or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Kholood have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 8 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Kholood's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Kholood
0
Draws
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6-0 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Kholood see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 50%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al Kholood and 100% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Kholood's recent matches and 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Kholood's matches and 100% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Al Kholood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Kholood 2-4 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 0.88 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.49 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Al Kholood beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 2.49 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.90 / defence 1.32 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.48 / defence 0.70, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 11% | Draw 16% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 72%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 50%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Kholood shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC scored 4 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.