Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Al Wehda Club travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ittihad FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Wehda Club — All Games: 2W 1D 4L from 7 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.57 per game is modest, conceding 1.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 14% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Al Wehda Club have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Wehda Club's away record: 0W 0D 4L from 4 road trips in Pro League this season (0.00 PPG). Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Ittihad FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Al-Ittihad FC's 30% rate and Al Wehda Club's 0% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad FC in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time.
Al Wehda Club in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Ittihad FC 29% | Al Wehda Club 14%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Ittihad FC 29% | Al Wehda Club 14%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.77 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.124 / defence 0.779 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.528 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.100. Al Wehda Club bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Al-Ittihad FC games / 7 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Draw 22% | Al Wehda Club 9%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.43 | Draw 4.55 | Al Wehda Club 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (70%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Al Wehda Club's lower xG of 0.45 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 30% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Al Wehda Club 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Draw 22% | Al Wehda Club 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 30% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.77 / Al Wehda Club 0.45 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.124 / def 0.779 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.528 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.45
Al Wehda Club xG
30%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Al-Ittihad FC 1 - 0 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 70% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 9% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 1.14 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.12) and Al Wehda Club's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wehda Club's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 0.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (17.0%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
70%
1.44
22%
4.59
9%
11.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
17.0%
Home win
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.22
0.45
Al Wehda Club xG
1.44
70%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
11.67
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.29
70%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
64%
1.57
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
44%
2.26
1%
68.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 8.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 17.0 | 7.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.45 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 4W 3D 0L from 7 games, a 2.14 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Wehda Club, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 4L across 7 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 1.14 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Wehda Club heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Wehda Club's away record stands at 0W 0D 3L across 3 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Wehda Club's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.29 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 0.57 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Al Wehda Club in 14%.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al Wehda Club
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 4W 3D 0L in their last 7 games (2.14 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.33 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al Wehda Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their recent games, Al Wehda Club in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ittihad FC have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2024, when Al-Ittihad FC won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al Wehda Club specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
0
Draws
0
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al Wehda Club have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Al Wehda Club 1-4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Al Wehda Club see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Ittihad FC 33% BTTS, Al Wehda Club 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Ittihad FC and 33% for Al Wehda Club.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Al Wehda Club in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 0% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 33% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Wehda Club 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Wehda Club 1-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.77 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.45 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.78 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.53 / defence 1.23, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Draw 22% | Al Wehda Club 9%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 21% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 29%, Al Wehda Club 14%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 21%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.