Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al Taawon in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Monday 26 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 7W 2D 1L at King Abdullah Sports City — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Taawon (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for Al-Ittihad FC, 2.10 for Al Taawon — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ittihad FC lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Ittihad FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 45% versus Al Taawon 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Al Taawon 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.12 xG and Al Taawon 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.066 / defence 0.832 | Al Taawon attack 1.090 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.142. Data: 38 Al-Ittihad FC games / 39 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 38% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Al Taawon 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Al Taawon 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 38% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.12 / Al Taawon 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.066 / def 0.832 | Al Taawon attack 1.090 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Al Taawon xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon?
Al-Ittihad FC 3 - 0 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 38% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 0W | Draws 2 | Al Taawon 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.07x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (1.09x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
38%
2.66
29%
3.40
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.16
1.04
Al Taawon xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.04 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 2.18 PPG on a 25W 8D 5L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon's form line: 13W 14D 11L from 38 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 2.33 PPG from 18 outings (13W 3D 2L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 6W 7D 5L from 18 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.45 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 68%.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 25W 8D 5L in their last 38 games (2.18 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 13W 14D 11L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.33 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ittihad FC go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
4
Draws
1
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Taawon have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Al Taawon 0-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 33%, Al Taawon 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 50% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 72% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 50% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Taawon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Taawon 3-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.12 xG and Al Taawon 1.04 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Taawon landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.83 against Al Taawon attack 1.09 / defence 0.82, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 38% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 33%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 50%, Al Taawon 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Taawon's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.