Al-Ittihad FC 1-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al Taawon in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Friday 24 September 2021 at 18:25 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taawon (all games): 0W 2D 3L across 5 Pro League outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.80. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 2.00 in Al-Ittihad FC's favour (2.40 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al Taawon in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Al-Ittihad FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 60% and Al Taawon 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ittihad FC 80% | Al Taawon 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.80 xG and Al Taawon 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.484 / defence 0.988 | Al Taawon attack 0.989 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.198. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.484 — their λ of 2.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Taawon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Al-Ittihad FC games / 5 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 69% | Draw 19% | Al Taawon 11%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Al Taawon 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.80 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.97 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Al Taawon 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 18:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 69% | Draw 19% | Al Taawon 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 67% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.80 / Al Taawon 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.484 / def 0.988 | Al Taawon attack 0.989 / def 1.407 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.80
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Al Taawon xG
67%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon kicked off at 18:25 on Friday 24 September 2021 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon?
Al-Ittihad FC 1 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 69% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 4W-0D-1L in 5 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.48x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 2.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (0.99x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
69%
1.44
19%
5.23
11%
8.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.80
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.97
1.17
Al Taawon xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.23
19%
Draw
8.73
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
6%
16.43
Win to Nil
21%
4.65
1%
143.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 2.80 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.17 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 5 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 2.40 PPG on a 4W 0D 1L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taawon's form line: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games, 0.40 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.80 scored and 2.80 conceded. Al Taawon's attacking output running into Al-Ittihad FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al Taawon in 100%.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 games (2.40 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 (0.40 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ittihad FC go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
4
Draws
1
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Taawon have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Al Taawon 0-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Al-Ittihad FC, 100% for Al Taawon — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Al-Ittihad FC and 80% for Al Taawon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 100% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 80% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 6, as Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.80 xG and Al Taawon 1.17 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.48 / defence 0.99 against Al Taawon attack 0.99 / defence 1.41, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 69% | Draw 19% | Al Taawon 11%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 80%, Al Taawon 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad FC managed 1 against a 2.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Taawon managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.