Al-Ittihad FC 0-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad FC face Al-Raed.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al-Raed to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Thursday 23 February 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's home record at King Abdullah Sports City: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Abdullah Sports City this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Al-Ittihad FC have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Al-Ittihad FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Al-Raed, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The historical record gives Al-Ittihad FC a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad FC in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 43% versus Al-Raed 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 53% | Al-Raed 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.25 xG and Al-Raed 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.339 / defence 0.657 | Al-Raed attack 1.030 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.153. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.339 — their λ of 2.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 0.657 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Al-Ittihad FC games / 47 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Draw 18% | Al-Raed 11%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Al-Raed 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 20% | Al-Raed 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Feb 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Draw 18% | Al-Raed 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.25 / Al-Raed 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.339 / def 0.657 | Al-Raed attack 1.030 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Al-Raed xG
49%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed kicked off at 16:30 on Thursday 23 February 2023 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed?
Al-Ittihad FC 0 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 70% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 3W | Draws 0 | Al-Raed 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.34x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
70%
1.42
18%
5.44
11%
8.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.03
0.78
Al-Raed xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.44
18%
Draw
8.90
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
11%
9.45
Win to Nil
32%
3.10
1%
84.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.78 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 32W 9D 6L from 47 games, a 2.23 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed, meanwhile, have gone 16W 8D 23L across 47 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Raed heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 17W 3D 3L from 23 games — 2.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Raed's away record stands at 6W 5D 12L across 23 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.19 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 32W 9D 6L in their last 47 games (2.23 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 16W 8D 23L in their last 47 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.35 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ittihad FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2021, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
1
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al-Raed have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2025, when Al-Raed 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 26%, Al-Raed 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Al-Ittihad FC and 70% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Al-Raed in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 56% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 70% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ittihad FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed finished level at 0-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.25 xG and Al-Raed 0.78 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.34 / defence 0.66 against Al-Raed attack 1.03 / defence 1.14, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Draw 18% | Al-Raed 11%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 53%, Al-Raed 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Raed's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.