Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al-Nassr to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 February 2022 at 16:20 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.70 PPG (Al-Ittihad FC) versus 2.50 (Al-Nassr). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Ittihad FC, 0 for Al-Nassr and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 3–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (18 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al-Nassr trading profile (18 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 44% versus Al-Nassr 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Al-Nassr 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.09 xG and Al-Nassr 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.196 / defence 0.934 | Al-Nassr attack 0.920 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.181. Data: 18 Al-Ittihad FC games / 19 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 36% | Draw 32% | Al-Nassr 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Nassr 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Al-Nassr 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 11 Feb 2022, 16:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 36% | Draw 32% | Al-Nassr 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.09 / Al-Nassr 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.196 / def 0.934 | Al-Nassr attack 0.920 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Al-Nassr xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 16:20 on Friday 11 February 2022 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Ittihad FC 3 - 0 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 36% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.20x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
36%
2.77
32%
3.15
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.10
1.01
Al-Nassr xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.01 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 2.44 PPG on a 14W 2D 2L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr's form line: 11W 2D 5L from 18 games, 1.94 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Nassr.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 2.50 PPG from 10 outings (8W 1D 1L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 1.72 scored and 0.94 conceded. Al-Ittihad FC's scoring rate against Al-Nassr's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 14W 2D 2L in their last 18 games (2.44 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 11W 2D 5L in their last 18 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.50 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
4
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al-Nassr have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Al-Nassr 2-0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 30%, Al-Nassr 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 40% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 50% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 40% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Nassr.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Nassr 3-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.09 xG and Al-Nassr 1.01 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Nassr landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.93 against Al-Nassr attack 0.92 / defence 0.84, drawn from 18/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 36% | Draw 32% | Al-Nassr 32%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 50%, Al-Nassr 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (18 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (18 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.