Al-Ittihad FC 2-0 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 15 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Khaleej Saihat have collected 0.33 PPG across 3 Pro League outings this season: 0W 1D 2L. Last five: L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Ittihad FC. A 1.47 PPG lead over Al Khaleej Saihat (1.80 vs 0.33) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Ittihad FC 0% | Al Khaleej Saihat 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Ittihad FC 33% | Al Khaleej Saihat 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.24 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.930 / defence 0.835 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.846 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.099. Al Khaleej Saihat bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Al-Ittihad FC games / 3 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 47% | Draw 30% | Al Khaleej Saihat 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Al Khaleej Saihat 4.35. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Al Khaleej Saihat 33% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 47% | Draw 30% | Al Khaleej Saihat 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.24 / Al Khaleej Saihat 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.930 / def 0.835 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.846 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 15 September 2022 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 47% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Al Khaleej Saihat's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (0.85x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
The sample (33/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
47%
2.12
30%
3.38
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.02
0.78
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
7%
14.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 12.8 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.78 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 1D 0L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 0.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al Khaleej Saihat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 0-3 on 3 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 33% (Al Khaleej Saihat) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Ittihad FC and 33% for Al Khaleej Saihat.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; Al Khaleej Saihat in 33%; Al-Ittihad FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 33% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 33% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Khaleej Saihat 2-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.24 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 0.78 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.83 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.85 / defence 1.24, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 47% | Draw 30% | Al Khaleej Saihat 23%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 33%, Al Khaleej Saihat 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.