Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-2 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Al-Hilal Saudi FC welcome Al-Raed to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 3D 0L from 6 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 0L across 3 games at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this term (2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
Al-Raed — All Games: 3W 2D 3L from 8 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.38 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.62 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.38. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Al-Raed trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67% versus Al-Raed 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al-Raed 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.52 xG and Al-Raed 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.929 / defence 1.075 | Al-Raed attack 1.047 / defence 1.425. League average goals — home 1.144 / away 1.177. Al-Raed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.425 — this is suppressing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 8 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 39% | Draw 30% | Al-Raed 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Raed 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 33% | Al-Raed 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 39% | Draw 30% | Al-Raed 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.52 / Al-Raed 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.929 / def 1.075 | Al-Raed attack 1.047 / def 1.425 | league avg home 1.144 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Al-Raed xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 2 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 39% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 3W-3D-0L in 6 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 0.93x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
39%
2.56
30%
3.30
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.84
1.32
Al-Raed xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
7%
14.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.7 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.32 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 3D 0L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Raed sit at 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Raed have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.67 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al-Raed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 3D 0L in their last 6 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.33 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1
Draws
0
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al-Raed have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2025, when Al-Raed 3-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 33%, Al-Raed 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 67% (Al-Raed).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Raed in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 67% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 67% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Raed 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Raed 3-2 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.52 xG and Al-Raed 1.32 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against Al-Raed attack 1.05 / defence 1.43, drawn from 6/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 39% | Draw 30% | Al-Raed 31%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%, Al-Raed 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Raed's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Raed (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.