Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-2 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (69%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Raed.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC welcome Al-Raed to Kingdom Arena in Pro League (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 7 December 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 8W 1D 1L — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across their last 10 home games (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al-Raed — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Al-Raed's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a clear advantage across the 6 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 0 for Al-Raed and 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Feb 2024, ended Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–1 Al-Raed — a Al-Hilal Saudi FC win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.5 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Al-Raed trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59% versus Al-Raed 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 72% | Al-Raed 54%). Note also that Al-Raed surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Al-Hilal Saudi FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 100% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.38 xG and Al-Raed 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.548 / defence 0.808 | Al-Raed attack 0.923 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.292. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.548 — their 2.38 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 46 games and Al-Raed's last 46.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69% | Draw 18% | Al-Raed 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.45 | Draw 5.67 | Al-Raed 7.37. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (69%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 home games and Al-Raed's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Raed 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, matchday 13 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69% | Draw 18% | Al-Raed 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.38 / Al-Raed 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.548 / def 0.808 | Al-Raed attack 0.923 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Al-Raed xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed FAQs
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 2 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed is a Pro League fixture (matchday 13) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 69% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.55x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 46 games and Al-Raed's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
69%
1.45
18%
5.67
14%
7.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.34
0.96
Al-Raed xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.67
18%
Draw
7.37
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
9%
10.82
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
1%
79.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.96 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 46 games, going 41W 4D 1L for 2.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Al-Raed sit at 1.11 PPG from 46 outings (13W 12D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.65 PPG clear of Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 21W 1D 0L across their last 22 home games, a 2.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Raed have taken 1.14 points per game from their last 22 away games (6W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.87 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.24 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Home) vs Al-Raed (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed Form FAQs
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 41W 4D 1L in their last 46 games (2.76 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 13W 12D 21L in their last 46 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.91 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 7 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Aug 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won Al-Raed 0-4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1
Draws
0
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al-Raed have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 May 2025: Al-Raed 3-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%, Al-Raed 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 50% (Al-Raed). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Al-Raed in 32%; Al-Raed in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 54% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 50% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 68% of Al-Raed's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Raed 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Raed 3-2 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.38 xG and Al-Raed 0.96 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Raed outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.55 / defence 0.81 against Al-Raed attack 0.92 / defence 1.14, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69% | Draw 18% | Al-Raed 14%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 72%, Al-Raed 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Raed's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.76 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Raed (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.