Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Al-Nassr travel to Kingdom Arena to take on Al-Hilal Saudi FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 12 January 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 10W 0D 0L from 10 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record at Kingdom Arena: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kingdom Arena.
Al-Nassr — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 2.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 2 for Al-Nassr and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2025, ended 1–3 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Al-Nassr trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% and Al-Nassr 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74% | Al-Nassr 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.96 xG and Al-Nassr 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.329 / defence 0.835 | Al-Nassr attack 1.346 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.472. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.346 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 47 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 45% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Nassr 3.03. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al-Nassr 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Monday 12 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 45% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.96 / Al-Nassr 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.329 / def 0.835 | Al-Nassr attack 1.346 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.472 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Al-Nassr xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 12 January 2026 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 1 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 45% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W | Draws 3 | Al-Nassr 2W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.33) and Al-Nassr's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
45%
2.20
22%
4.62
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.62
1.66
Al-Nassr xG
2.20
45%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
14%
7.12
Win to Nil
9%
11.53
5%
21.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.66 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 47 games, going 34W 8D 5L for 2.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.09 PPG from 47 outings (30W 8D 9L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 2.34 PPG, Al-Nassr on 2.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 18W 3D 2L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.09 points per game from 23 outings (15W 3D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.77 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.47 scored and 1.11 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al-Nassr in 70%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 34W 8D 5L in their last 47 games (2.34 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 30W 8D 9L in their last 47 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.48 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Mar 2022, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
4
Draws
2
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, Al-Nassr have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56%, Al-Nassr 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 78% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 70% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 78% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Nassr.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Nassr 3-1 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.96 xG and Al-Nassr 1.66 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.33 / defence 0.83 against Al-Nassr attack 1.35 / defence 0.99, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 45% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 33%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%, Al-Nassr 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.34 PPG, Al-Nassr 2.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hilal Saudi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.