Al-Hazm 1-2 NEOM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEOM at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs NEOM fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Hazem Club Stadium plays host to Al-Hazm versus NEOM in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 4 January 2026 at 15:05 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hazm have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season: 0W 1D 3L from 4 home games — 0.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.25 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season.
NEOM's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NEOM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, NEOM have posted 3W 1D 1L from 5 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. NEOM are 0.50 PPG clear of Al-Hazm in recent Pro League fixtures (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
NEOM half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 54% and NEOM 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 46% | NEOM 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.98 xG and NEOM 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.630 / defence 1.233 | NEOM attack 1.009 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.480. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.630 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Al-Hazm games / 11 NEOM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 20% | Draw 23% | NEOM 57%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | NEOM 1.75. The model has a clear lean to NEOM (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NEOM as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hazm 25% | NEOM 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs NEOM | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jan 2026, 15:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 20% | Draw 23% | NEOM 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Hazm 0.98 / NEOM 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.630 / def 1.233 | NEOM attack 1.009 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.480 • Poisson stance: NEOM (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.84
NEOM xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs NEOM kick off?
Al-Hazm vs NEOM kicked off at 15:05 on Sunday 4 January 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs NEOM?
Al-Hazm 1 - 2 NEOM.
Where is Al-Hazm vs NEOM being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs NEOM part of?
Al-Hazm vs NEOM is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs NEOM?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 20% chance of winning, NEOM a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making NEOM the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs NEOM?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Hazm and NEOM will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs NEOM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and NEOM?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hazm and NEOM in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. NEOM (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Hazm's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against NEOM's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — NEOM's attack (1.01x) against Al-Hazm's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEOM Win
20%
5.06
23%
4.38
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.83
1.84
NEOM xG
5.06
20%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
16%
6.30
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
3%
31.88
21%
4.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.9 | 10.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs NEOM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and NEOM expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.84 for NEOM, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs NEOM?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hazm come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 4D 4L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NEOM sit at 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for NEOM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Al-Hazm against 1.55 for NEOM. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Hazm's home form reads 0W 1D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.25 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.18 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, NEOM have taken 2.50 points per game from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.55 PPG overall record — NEOM travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEOM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hazm are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; NEOM are on 1.45 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEOM in 82%.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
NEOM
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and NEOM in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 games (1.18 PPG), while NEOM have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or NEOM away?
NEOM's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.25 PPG; NEOM away: 2.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
1
NEOM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and NEOM?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, NEOM have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and NEOM last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when NEOM 1-1 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and NEOM?
NEOM have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 25%, NEOM 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al-Hazm) and 75% (NEOM).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / NEOM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play NEOM?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of Al-Hazm's games and 100% of NEOM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs NEOM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 75% of NEOM's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and NEOM tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, NEOM in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NEOM edge out Al-Hazm 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEOM beat Al-Hazm 1-2 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 0.98 xG and NEOM 1.84 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.63 / defence 1.23 against NEOM attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 20% | Draw 23% | NEOM 57%, with NEOM to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 46%, NEOM 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
NEOM's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 1.18 PPG, NEOM 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEOM win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.