Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hazm host Al Taawon at Al-Hazem Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 8 September 2026 at 15:55 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Hazm — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Hazm haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Hazm have posted 7W 1D 2L at Al-Hazem Club Stadium — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Taawon haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al Taawon's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Hazm at 1.40 PPG versus Al Taawon's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Hazm register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Taawon in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Al-Hazm have won 1, Al Taawon 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2026, ended 2–0 with Al-Hazm winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 59% and Al Taawon 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 59% | Al Taawon 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.49 xG and Al Taawon 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.984 / defence 1.014 | Al Taawon attack 1.080 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 34 Al-Hazm games / 34 Al Taawon games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 37% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 38%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Al Taawon 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 60% | Al Taawon 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Sep 2026, 15:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 37% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Hazm 1.49 / Al Taawon 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.984 / def 1.014 | Al Taawon attack 1.080 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Al Taawon xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon is scheduled to kick off at 15:55 on Tuesday 8 September 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 37% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Taawon?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Hazm 1W | Draws 2 | Al Taawon 3W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Taawon in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Hazm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Hazm's attack at 0.98x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
37%
2.74
25%
3.92
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
3.01
1.52
Al Taawon xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
8%
12.54
9%
11.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.52 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 11W 9D 14L from 34 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five. Al-Hazm haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 11L across 34 games — 1.56 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. Al Taawon haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hazm on 1.24 PPG, Al Taawon on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 8W 2D 7L from 17 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 8W 3D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.74 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 65%.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Pre-Season
Al Taawon
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 11W 9D 14L in their last 34 games (1.24 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 15W 8D 11L in their last 34 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.53 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2024, when Al Taawon won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
3
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Taawon?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 1, Al Taawon have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 59%, Al Taawon 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al-Hazm and 59% for Al Taawon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al-Hazm's games and 65% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al-Hazm's matches and 59% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.