Al-Hazm 2-0 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hazm host Al Taawon at Al-Hazem Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 21 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Hazm — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Hazm have posted 6W 1D 3L at Al-Hazem Club Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Al Taawon's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Hazm at 1.40 PPG versus Al Taawon's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Al Taawon have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters against Al-Hazm's 0 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Taawon have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 61% and Al Taawon 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 61% | Al Taawon 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.16 xG and Al Taawon 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.874 / defence 1.212 | Al Taawon attack 1.265 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.399. Al Taawon have an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — the away xG of 2.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Al-Hazm games / 67 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 19% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 59%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Al Taawon 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.16 / 2.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 70% | Al Taawon 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 19% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Hazm 1.16 / Al Taawon 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.874 / def 1.212 | Al Taawon attack 1.265 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
2.15
Al Taawon xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 21 May 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Al-Hazm 2 - 0 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 19% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Taawon?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 2 | Al Taawon 3W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Taawon in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Hazm's attack at 0.87x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 2.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
19%
5.22
22%
4.59
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
0 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
3.31
2.15
Al Taawon xG
5.22
19%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
12%
8.55
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
2%
44.60
18%
5.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 2.15 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 10W 9D 14L from 33 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 10L across 33 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 7W 2D 7L from 16 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 8W 3D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.79 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al Taawon in 67%.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Current Season
Al Taawon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 10W 9D 14L in their last 33 games (1.18 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 15W 8D 10L in their last 33 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.44 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2024, when Al Taawon won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
3
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Taawon?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 1, Al Taawon have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Hazm at 62%, Al Taawon at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Al-Hazm and 62% for Al Taawon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Hazm's games and 69% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Al-Hazm's matches and 62% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hazm cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Taawon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm beat Al Taawon 2-0 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.16 xG and Al Taawon 2.15 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hazm beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Taawon landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.87 / defence 1.21 against Al Taawon attack 1.26 / defence 0.87, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 19% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 59%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Al-Hazm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 61%, Al Taawon 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Taawon's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Al-Hazm winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.