Al-Hazm 1-3 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hazm host Al Taawon at Ar-Rass Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Hazm — All Games: 0W 3D 4L from 7 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.43 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 2.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.29 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Hazm have posted 0W 1D 2L at Ar-Rass Stadium — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taawon's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Taawon — 2.07 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.43). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Hazm register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Al Taawon in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al Taawon 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with Al Taawon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 71% and Al Taawon 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 43% | Al Taawon 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.89 xG and Al Taawon 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.707 / defence 1.342 | Al Taawon attack 1.025 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.471. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Al-Hazm games / 37 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 16% | Draw 21% | Al Taawon 64%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 6.25 | Draw 4.76 | Al Taawon 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 67% | Al Taawon 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 16% | Draw 21% | Al Taawon 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Hazm 0.89 / Al Taawon 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.707 / def 1.342 | Al Taawon attack 1.025 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Al Taawon xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 29 September 2023 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Al-Hazm 1 - 3 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 16% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 64% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Taawon?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 1 | Al Taawon 1W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Taawon in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 0W-3D-4L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 2.29 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Hazm's attack at 0.71x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 2.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
16%
6.33
21%
4.85
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.92
2.02
Al Taawon xG
6.33
16%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
13%
7.56
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
2%
47.88
26%
3.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.9 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 2.02 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 0W 3D 4L from 7 games, a 0.43 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 1L across 7 games — 2.29 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 1.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.86 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Taawon in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 games (0.43 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.33 PPG; Al Taawon away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al-Hazm or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2024, when Al Taawon won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
3
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Taawon?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 1, Al Taawon have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 67%, Al Taawon 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Hazm and 33% for Al Taawon.
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 67%; Al-Hazm have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 33% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 33% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Hazm 1-3 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 0.89 xG and Al Taawon 2.02 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Taawon outscored their 2.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.71 / defence 1.34 against Al Taawon attack 1.02 / defence 0.83, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 16% | Draw 21% | Al Taawon 64%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 43%, Al Taawon 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 0.43. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.