Al-Hazm 1-1 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Riyadh at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Riyadh make the trip to Ar-Rass Stadium to face Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 May 2024 at 17:20 UTC.
Form
Al-Hazm (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Al-Hazm's home record at Ar-Rass Stadium: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Al Riyadh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Riyadh's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Al-Hazm, 1.00 for Al Riyadh — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Hazm 0W, Al Riyadh 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hazm — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al Riyadh — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 58% versus Al Riyadh 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 55% | Al Riyadh 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.10 xG and Al Riyadh 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.667 / defence 1.384 | Al Riyadh attack 0.737 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.380. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.667 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Al-Hazm games / 31 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 27% | Draw 31% | Al Riyadh 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Al Riyadh 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Riyadh are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hazm 40% | Al Riyadh 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 17:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 27% | Draw 31% | Al Riyadh 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Hazm 1.10 / Al Riyadh 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.667 / def 1.384 | Al Riyadh attack 0.737 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Al Riyadh xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 17:20 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Hazm 1 - 1 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 27% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 1 | Al Riyadh 0W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Al Riyadh (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Hazm's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Al Riyadh's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Al Riyadh's attack (0.74x) against Al-Hazm's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
27%
3.68
31%
3.23
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.51
1.41
Al Riyadh xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
7%
15.05
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.41 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 3W 11D 17L from 31 games, a 0.65 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Al Riyadh, meanwhile, have gone 7W 9D 15L across 31 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.65 PPG for Al-Hazm against 0.97 for Al Riyadh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 2W 4D 9L from 15 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Riyadh's away record stands at 3W 3D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hazm are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 2.32 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 0.90 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Current Season
Al Riyadh
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 3W 11D 17L in their last 31 games (0.65 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 7W 9D 15L in their last 31 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al Riyadh's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.67 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hazm have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Riyadh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
0
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 2, Al Riyadh have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh?
Al-Hazm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 53%, Al Riyadh 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al-Hazm and 67% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 40% of games; Al Riyadh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al Riyadh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Hazm's games and 60% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Hazm's matches and 67% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 32, as Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.10 xG and Al Riyadh 1.41 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.67 / defence 1.38 against Al Riyadh attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 27% | Draw 31% | Al Riyadh 42%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 55%, Al Riyadh 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 0.65 PPG, Al Riyadh 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.