Al-Hazm 2-3 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Al Baten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Al Baten travel to Ar-Rass Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 May 2022, 17:25 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Hazm have posted 2W 2D 6L at Ar-Rass Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Baten — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Baten away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al Baten's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al-Hazm's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Hazm, 0 for Al Baten and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Al Baten in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 33% versus Al Baten 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Hazm 37% | Al Baten 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.37 xG and Al Baten 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.877 / defence 1.133 | Al Baten attack 0.601 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.264. Al Baten bring a strong defensive rating of 1.312 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Al-Hazm games / 27 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 49% | Draw 28% | Al Baten 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Al Baten 4.17. Al-Hazm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Baten (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 30% | Al Baten 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 May 2022, 17:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 49% | Draw 28% | Al Baten 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Al-Hazm 1.37 / Al Baten 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.877 / def 1.133 | Al Baten attack 0.601 / def 1.312 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Al Baten xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Baten kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Baten kicked off at 17:25 on Friday 27 May 2022 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al Baten?
Al-Hazm 2 - 3 Al Baten.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Baten part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 49% chance of winning, Al Baten a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Baten?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 1 | Al Baten 0W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Baten in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Al Baten (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.88) and Al Baten's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Baten's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
49%
2.05
28%
3.61
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.23
0.86
Al Baten xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
6%
16.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.7 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 0.86 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Baten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 4W 5D 18L from 27 games, a 0.63 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Baten, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 13L across 27 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hazm on 0.63 PPG, Al Baten on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 3W 4D 6L from 13 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Baten's away record stands at 1W 3D 9L across 13 trips, a 0.46 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Baten's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hazm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hazm are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.96 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 4W 5D 18L in their last 27 games (0.63 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 6W 8D 13L in their last 27 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al Baten away?
Al-Hazm's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hazm and Al Baten runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Baten?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al Baten have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2022, when Al-Hazm 2-3 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Baten?
Al Baten have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 38%, Al Baten 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Al-Hazm) and 38% (Al Baten).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 46% of games; Al Baten in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al Baten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 38% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 38% of Al Baten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al Baten tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Baten defy the odds to beat Al-Hazm 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Baten beat Al-Hazm 2-3 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.37 xG and Al Baten 0.86 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al Baten outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.88 / defence 1.13 against Al Baten attack 0.60 / defence 1.31, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 49% | Draw 28% | Al Baten 24%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Al Baten win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 37%, Al Baten 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Al Baten's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 0.63 PPG, Al Baten 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Baten win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Baten (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.