Al-Hazm 2-1 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 46%, yet in-form Abha provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Hazm vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ar-Rass Stadium plays host to Al-Hazm versus Abha in Pro League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Monday 27 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hazm have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Ar-Rass Stadium, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Abha (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Abha's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Abha are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al-Hazm 1W, Abha 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Abha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 61% versus Abha 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 54% | Abha 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.86 xG and Abha 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.653 / defence 1.377 | Abha attack 0.771 / defence 1.940. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.331. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.653 is below the league average — the 1.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.940 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Al-Hazm games / 63 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 46% | Draw 27% | Abha 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Abha 3.70. Al-Hazm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Abha (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hazm 40% | Abha 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 46% | Draw 27% | Abha 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Al-Hazm 1.86 / Abha 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.653 / def 1.377 | Abha attack 0.771 / def 1.940 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Abha xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Abha kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Abha kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 May 2024 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Abha?
Al-Hazm 2 - 1 Abha.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Abha part of?
Al-Hazm vs Abha is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 46% chance of winning, Abha a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al-Hazm and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Abha?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Hazm 1W | Draws 1 | Abha 1W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Abha in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Abha (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hazm's attack at 0.65x the league average against Abha's defence at 1.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Abha's attack (0.77x) against Al-Hazm's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 33/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.77
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
3.27
1.41
Abha xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
16%
6.41
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
4%
23.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.41 for Abha, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 0.64 PPG on a 3W 12D 18L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Abha's form line: 9W 5D 19L from 33 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.64 PPG for Al-Hazm against 0.97 for Abha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 0.69 PPG from 16 outings (2W 5D 9L).
On the road, Abha have gone 0W 2D 14L from 16 away games — 0.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hazm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hazm are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 2.27 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.12 scored and 2.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Current Season
Abha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 3W 12D 18L in their last 33 games (0.64 PPG), while Abha have gone 9W 5D 19L in their last 33 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Abha away?
Al-Hazm's home record (0.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.69 PPG; Abha away: 0.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hazm have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Abha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
1
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Abha?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 2, Abha have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2024, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Abha?
Al-Hazm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 56%, Abha 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Al-Hazm and 81% for Abha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 38% of games; Abha in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Abha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al-Hazm's games and 56% of Abha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Hazm's matches and 81% of Abha's.
Do Al-Hazm and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Abha in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hazm edge out Abha 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm beat Abha 2-1 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.86 xG and Abha 1.41 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.65 / defence 1.38 against Abha attack 0.77 / defence 1.94, drawn from 33/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 46% | Draw 27% | Abha 27%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 54%, Abha 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Abha's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 0.64 PPG, Abha 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hazm win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Abha (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.