Al-Fayha 0-0 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fayha host Al Wehda Club at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Al-Fayha have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Al-Fayha have won 2, Al Wehda Club 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 54% versus Al Wehda Club 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 50% | Al Wehda Club 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.16 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.608 / defence 0.764 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.787 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.352. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.608 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Wehda Club bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Al-Fayha games / 56 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 44% | Draw 30% | Al Wehda Club 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Al Wehda Club 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 30% | Al Wehda Club 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 44% | Draw 30% | Al Wehda Club 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Al-Fayha 1.16 / Al Wehda Club 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.608 / def 0.764 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.787 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Al Wehda Club xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club?
Al-Fayha 0 - 0 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 44% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Fayha 2W | Draws 2 | Al Wehda Club 1W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Al Wehda Club's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wehda Club's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
44%
2.28
30%
3.28
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
1.97
0.81
Al Wehda Club xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
8%
12.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 11.3 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.81 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha come into this having played 56 games, going 15W 20D 21L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Wehda Club sit at 0.88 PPG from 56 outings (13W 10D 33L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.16 PPG, Al Wehda Club on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fayha's home form reads 6W 11D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Wehda Club have taken 0.67 points per game from 27 outings (5W 3D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 1.25 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 15W 20D 21L in their last 56 games (1.16 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 13W 10D 33L in their last 56 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.07 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al Wehda Club specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Fayha
3
Draws
1
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 2, Al Wehda Club have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Al-Fayha 0-0 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 41%, Al Wehda Club 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Al-Fayha) and 56% (Al Wehda Club).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 44% of games; Al Wehda Club in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 52% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 56% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Fayha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.16 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.81 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al Wehda Club landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.61 / defence 0.76 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.79 / defence 1.26, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 44% | Draw 30% | Al Wehda Club 26%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 50%, Al Wehda Club 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.16 PPG, Al Wehda Club 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.