Al-Fayha 0-0 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Friday 19 September 2025 at 16:35 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Shabab have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Al-Fayha, 1.70 for Al Shabab — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Al Shabab hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Al Shabab winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Shabab have won 7 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 36% versus Al Shabab 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 42% | Al Shabab 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.38 xG and Al Shabab 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.892 / defence 0.911 | Al Shabab attack 1.095 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.434. Data: 36 Al-Fayha games / 36 Al Shabab games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 36% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 39%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Al Shabab 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 30% | Al Shabab 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 19 Sep 2025, 16:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 36% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Fayha 1.38 / Al Shabab 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.892 / def 0.911 | Al Shabab attack 1.095 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Al Shabab xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab kicked off at 16:35 on Friday 19 September 2025 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Al-Fayha 0 - 0 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 36% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Shabab?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 0 | Al Shabab 7W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Shabab in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.89x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (1.09x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
36%
2.77
25%
3.96
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.81
1.43
Al Shabab xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
9%
11.59
10%
10.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.43 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fayha come into this having played 36 games, going 9W 12D 15L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.75 PPG from 36 outings (19W 6D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Fayha's home form reads 5W 6D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.65 points per game from 17 outings (8W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.86 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 9W 12D 15L in their last 36 games (1.08 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 19W 6D 11L in their last 36 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.24 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
1
Draws
8
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al Shabab have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Al Shabab 1-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 35%, Al Shabab 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Al-Fayha) and 65% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 65% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 65% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Fayha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha and Al Shabab finished level at 0-0 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.38 xG and Al Shabab 1.43 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al Shabab landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.89 / defence 0.91 against Al Shabab attack 1.09 / defence 0.98, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 36% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 39%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 42%, Al Shabab 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Shabab's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.