Al-Fayha 0-0 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Al-Fayha welcome Al-Nassr to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Al-Nassr — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Al-Nassr's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Al-Fayha's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Fayha, 2 for Al-Nassr and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 0–4 with Al-Nassr winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al-Nassr trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 43% versus Al-Nassr 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 29% | Al-Nassr 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.73 xG and Al-Nassr 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.836 / defence 0.968 | Al-Nassr attack 1.498 / defence 0.609. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.317. Al-Nassr's defence strength of 0.609 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.498 — the away xG of 1.91 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Al-Fayha games / 52 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 12% | Draw 23% | Al-Nassr 64%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 8.33 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Nassr 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 50% | Al-Nassr 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 12% | Draw 23% | Al-Nassr 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Fayha 0.73 / Al-Nassr 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.836 / def 0.968 | Al-Nassr attack 1.498 / def 0.609 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Al-Nassr xG
45%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Fayha 0 - 0 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 12% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 64% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Nassr 2W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.84x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.61x — combine the two and it projects 0.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
12%
8.00
23%
4.34
64%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.1%
Away win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.63
1.91
Al-Nassr xG
8.00
12%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
1.55
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
15%
6.75
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
2%
53.97
31%
3.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 13.7 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.91 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 14W 17D 20L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr's form line: 34W 8D 9L from 51 games, 2.16 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fayha.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 1.52 PPG from 25 outings (10W 8D 7L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 16W 4D 5L from 25 away games — 2.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.02 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 14W 17D 20L in their last 51 games (1.16 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 34W 8D 9L in their last 51 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.52 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Al-Nassr won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
8
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Fayha 28% BTTS, Al-Nassr 36%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Al-Fayha) and 60% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 48%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 36% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 60% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Fayha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr finished level at 0-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.73 xG and Al-Nassr 1.91 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Nassr landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.84 / defence 0.97 against Al-Nassr attack 1.50 / defence 0.61, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 12% | Draw 23% | Al-Nassr 64%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 29%, Al-Nassr 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.