Al-Fayha 0-0 Al-Faisaly FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Faisaly FC make the trip to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to face Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Thursday 10 February 2022 at 16:20 UTC.
Form
Al-Fayha (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season: 5W 3D 0L from 8 home games — 2.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.12 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 8 home games (88%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Faisaly FC have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 5L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.38 PPG). Away from home they average 0.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.38 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Al-Fayha, 0.90 for Al-Faisaly FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Fayha lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Al-Faisaly FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Faisaly FC — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 39% versus Al-Faisaly FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fayha 17% | Al-Faisaly FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.22 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.793 / defence 0.736 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.529 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.193. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.383 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.736 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 18 Al-Fayha games / 18 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 54% | Draw 33% | Al-Faisaly FC 13%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 1.85 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Faisaly FC 7.69. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Al-Faisaly FC's lower xG of 0.46 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.68 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 27% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 12% | Al-Faisaly FC 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Feb 2022, 16:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 54% | Draw 33% | Al-Faisaly FC 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 27% | xG Al-Fayha 1.22 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.46 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.793 / def 0.736 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.529 / def 1.383 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.46
Al-Faisaly FC xG
27%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC kicked off at 16:20 on Thursday 10 February 2022 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Fayha 0 - 0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 54% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 13% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Faisaly FC 1W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.79) and Al-Faisaly FC's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Faisaly FC's attack (0.53x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.46.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (20.0%), 2-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
54%
1.85
33%
3.05
13%
7.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
22.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.6%
Draw
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
1.68
0.46
Al-Faisaly FC xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
7.65
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.68
73%
BTTS No
1.37
Clean Sheet
63%
1.59
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
34%
2.94
4%
25.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.6 | 8.6 | 2.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 22.7 | 10.5 | 2.4 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 6.4 | 1.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.3%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.46 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 6W 7D 5L from 18 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Faisaly FC, meanwhile, have gone 4W 7D 7L across 18 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.06 for Al-Faisaly FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 5W 3D 0L from 8 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Al-Fayha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record stands at 0W 3D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Faisaly FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 1.11 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 6W 7D 5L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 4W 7D 7L in their last 18 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Al-Fayha's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 2.25 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Faisaly FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al-Faisaly FC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Fayha
1
Draws
1
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 0, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2022, when Al-Fayha 0-0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Faisaly FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 12% (Al-Fayha) and 38% (Al-Faisaly FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Fayha and 25% for Al-Faisaly FC.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 88% of their matches; Al-Faisaly FC in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Faisaly FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 38% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 25% of Al-Faisaly FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Fayha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha and Al-Faisaly FC finished level at 0-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.22 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.46 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.79 / defence 0.74 against Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.53 / defence 1.38, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 54% | Draw 33% | Al-Faisaly FC 13%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 17%, Al-Faisaly FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.39 PPG, Al-Faisaly FC 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Faisaly FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.