Al-Fayha 4-1 Al-Faisaly FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Faisaly FC make the trip to Al Majma’a Sport City to face Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:55 UTC.
Form
Al-Fayha (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha at Al Majma’a Sport City this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Faisaly FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Al-Fayha, 1.00 for Al-Faisaly FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Fayha have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Faisaly FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Fayha lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Faisaly FC — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fayha 64% and Al-Faisaly FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 64% | Al-Faisaly FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.50 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.951 / defence 1.158 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.822 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.497. Data: 45 Al-Fayha games / 11 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 37% | Draw 29% | Al-Faisaly FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Faisaly FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 70% | Al-Faisaly FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Al Majma’a Sport City • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 14:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 37% | Draw 29% | Al-Faisaly FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Fayha 1.50 / Al-Faisaly FC 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.951 / def 1.158 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.822 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.497 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Al-Faisaly FC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC kicked off at 14:55 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Al Majma’a Sport City.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Fayha 4 - 1 Al-Faisaly FC.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma’a Sport City.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 37% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Faisaly FC 1W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.95) and Al-Faisaly FC's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Faisaly FC's attack (0.82x) against Al-Fayha's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
37%
2.68
29%
3.46
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.93
1.43
Al-Faisaly FC xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
9%
11.16
8%
13.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.43 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 1W 5D 5L from 11 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Faisaly FC, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 5L across 11 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.73 PPG for Al-Fayha against 0.91 for Al-Faisaly FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 1.09 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fayha have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Al-Faisaly FC in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 1W 5D 5L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fayha won 4-1 on 31 Oct 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Faisaly FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
1
Draws
1
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Al-Fayha 4-1 Al-Faisaly FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Al-Fayha, 60% for Al-Faisaly FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Al-Fayha and 60% for Al-Faisaly FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Faisaly FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Al-Fayha's games and 60% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Al-Fayha's matches and 60% of Al-Faisaly FC's.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Fayha run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al-Faisaly FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al-Faisaly FC 4-1 at Al Majma’a Sport City, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.50 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 1.43 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.95 / defence 1.16 against Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 37% | Draw 29% | Al-Faisaly FC 34%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 64%, Al-Faisaly FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 0.73 PPG, Al-Faisaly FC 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Faisaly FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.