Al-Fayha 2-0 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Abha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Abha travel to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Thursday 2 March 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fayha stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Abha have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Al-Fayha are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Fayha, 0 for Abha and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Abha trading profile (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 43% versus Abha 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 30% | Abha 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.58 xG and Abha 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.962 / defence 1.058 | Abha attack 0.920 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.151. Data: 47 Al-Fayha games / 48 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 47% | Draw 26% | Abha 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Abha 3.70. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 0.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 40% | Abha 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 47% | Draw 26% | Abha 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Fayha 1.58 / Abha 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.962 / def 1.058 | Abha attack 0.920 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Abha xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Abha kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Abha kicked off at 13:00 on Thursday 2 March 2023 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Abha?
Al-Fayha 2 - 0 Abha.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Abha part of?
Al-Fayha vs Abha is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 47% chance of winning, Abha a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Fayha and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Abha?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 3 | Abha 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Abha in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Abha (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Abha's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.84
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.70
1.12
Abha xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
5%
18.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.12 for Abha, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 13W 16D 18L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Abha's form line: 15W 9D 23L from 47 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.17 PPG, Abha on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 1.55 PPG from 22 outings (9W 7D 6L).
On the road, Abha have gone 5W 3D 14L from 22 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.00 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 13W 16D 18L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while Abha have gone 15W 9D 23L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Abha away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.55 PPG; Abha away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Abha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Abha in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Abha specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Fayha
3
Draws
1
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 2, Abha have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Al-Fayha 3-2 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Abha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 27%, Abha 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Al-Fayha and 46% for Abha.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 36% of games; Abha in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 46% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 46% of Abha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Abha in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Abha 2-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.58 xG and Abha 1.12 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Abha landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.96 / defence 1.06 against Abha attack 0.92 / defence 1.14, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 47% | Draw 26% | Abha 27%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 30%, Abha 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Abha's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.17 PPG, Abha 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm. Abha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.