Al-Fateh 1-5 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Al-Ittihad FC travel to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 March 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ittihad FC's 2.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 1.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Fateh, 2 for Al-Ittihad FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 46% versus Al-Ittihad FC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 54% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 0.99 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.163 / defence 1.010 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.232 / defence 0.614. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.308. Al-Ittihad FC's defence strength of 0.614 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.232 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Al-Fateh games / 50 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 22% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.92. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Fateh 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 22% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Fateh 0.99 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.163 / def 1.010 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.232 / def 0.614 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Al-Ittihad FC xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Fateh 1 - 5 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 22% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (1.16) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.61), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
22%
4.47
26%
3.86
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.62
1.63
Al-Ittihad FC xG
4.47
22%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
4%
22.79
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.63 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 19W 10D 21L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 34W 10D 6L from 50 games, 2.24 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.36 PPG from 25 outings (10W 4D 11L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 16W 6D 3L from 25 away games — 2.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.94 scored and 0.70 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 19W 10D 21L in their last 50 games (1.34 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 34W 10D 6L in their last 50 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.36 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.16 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
7
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al-Fateh 2-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 40%, Al-Ittihad FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Fateh) and 56% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC in 36%; Al-Fateh have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Fateh's matches and 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fateh 1-5 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 0.99 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.63 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.63 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.16 / defence 1.01 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.23 / defence 0.61, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 22% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 54%, Al-Ittihad FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.