Al-Fateh 3-0 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fateh and Abha meet at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fateh have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Abha's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Abha away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Al-Fateh, 0.80 for Abha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al-Fateh 1W, Abha 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2022, ended 3–0 with Al-Fateh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Abha half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 38% versus Abha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 47% | Abha 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.10 xG and Abha 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.925 / defence 1.148 | Abha attack 0.802 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.083. Data: 34 Al-Fateh games / 34 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 38% | Draw 30% | Abha 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Abha 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 40% | Abha 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 38% | Draw 30% | Abha 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Al-Fateh 1.10 / Abha 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.925 / def 1.148 | Abha attack 0.802 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Abha xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Abha kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Abha kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Abha?
Al-Fateh 3 - 0 Abha.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Abha part of?
Al-Fateh vs Abha is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 38% chance of winning, Abha a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Al-Fateh and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Abha?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 0 | Abha 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Abha in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Abha (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 0.93x the league average against Abha's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Abha's attack (0.80x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
38%
2.65
30%
3.34
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.10
1.00
Abha xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
11%
9.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.00 for Abha, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 10W 8D 16L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Abha's form line: 10W 9D 15L from 34 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.15 for Abha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.06 PPG from 16 outings (5W 2D 9L).
On the road, Abha have gone 2W 3D 11L from 16 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 0.88 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Abha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 10W 8D 16L in their last 34 games (1.12 PPG), while Abha have gone 10W 9D 15L in their last 34 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Abha away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.06 PPG; Abha away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 3-0 on 10 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Abha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
1
Draws
2
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Abha have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Abha 2-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Abha?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 38%, Abha 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al-Fateh) and 38% (Abha).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 38% of games; Abha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 44% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 38% of Abha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Abha in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Fateh run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Abha 3-0 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.10 xG and Abha 1.00 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fateh beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Abha landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.93 / defence 1.15 against Abha attack 0.80 / defence 1.05, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 38% | Draw 30% | Abha 32%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 47%, Abha 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Abha's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.12 PPG, Abha 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Abha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.