Al-Faisaly FC 3-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Faisaly FC at 41%, yet in-form Damac provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Faisaly FC vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Faisaly FC versus Damac in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 5 February 2022 at 14:20 UTC.
Form
Al-Faisaly FC (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Faisaly FC at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season: 3W 4D 2L from 9 home games — 1.44 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.44 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Faisaly FC are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Damac have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Damac have gone 4W 2D 3L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.56 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Damac are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Faisaly FC 0W, Damac 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Damac winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Faisaly FC half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 59% versus Damac 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Faisaly FC 53% | Damac 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.66 xG and Damac 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.058 / defence 1.299 | Damac attack 1.003 / defence 1.427. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.141. Damac bring a strong defensive rating of 1.427 — this is suppressing Al-Faisaly FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Al-Faisaly FC games / 18 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 41% | Draw 26% | Damac 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Damac 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Faisaly FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Damac (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Faisaly FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Faisaly FC 78% | Damac 56% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 14:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 41% | Draw 26% | Damac 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.66 / Damac 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.058 / def 1.299 | Damac attack 1.003 / def 1.427 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Al-Faisaly FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Damac xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Damac kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Damac kicked off at 14:20 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Damac?
Al-Faisaly FC 3 - 0 Damac.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Damac part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Damac is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 41% chance of winning, Damac a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Faisaly FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Damac?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 0W | Draws 0 | Damac 1W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Damac in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Damac (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Faisaly FC's attack rating (1.06) and Damac's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Damac's attack (1.00x) against Al-Faisaly FC's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Faisaly FC Win
41%
2.45
26%
3.86
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
3.15
1.49
Damac xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
9%
10.86
6%
15.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.49 for Damac, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Faisaly FC's recent record stands at 3W 7D 7L from 17 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 3L across 17 games — 1.76 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Damac by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Faisaly FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Faisaly FC have managed 2W 4D 2L from 8 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Damac's away record stands at 4W 2D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.35 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Damac in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 3W 7D 7L in their last 17 games (0.94 PPG), while Damac have gone 8W 6D 3L in their last 17 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Damac away?
Damac's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 1.25 PPG; Damac away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Damac in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Faisaly FC
0
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Damac?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, Damac have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when Al-Faisaly FC 3-0 Damac.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Faisaly FC 75%, Damac 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al-Faisaly FC and 50% for Damac. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al-Faisaly FC's games and 50% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Faisaly FC's matches and 50% of Damac's.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Damac in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Faisaly FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Faisaly FC beat Damac 3-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Faisaly FC 1.66 xG and Damac 1.49 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Faisaly FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Damac landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.30 against Damac attack 1.00 / defence 1.43, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Faisaly FC 41% | Draw 26% | Damac 33%, with Al-Faisaly FC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Faisaly FC 53%, Damac 24%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Damac's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Al-Faisaly FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Faisaly FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.