Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Al-Faisaly FC versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Thursday 29 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Faisaly FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Faisaly FC's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 games at this term (0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Al-Faisaly FC against 1.10 for Al-Fayha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Faisaly FC lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2026, ended 1–4 with Al-Fayha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Faisaly FC — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Faisaly FC 67% and Al-Fayha 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 58% | Al-Fayha 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.16 xG and Al-Fayha 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.781 / defence 1.220 | Al-Fayha attack 0.737 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Faisaly FC's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Al-Faisaly FC games / 46 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 30% | Draw 32% | Al-Fayha 38%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Fayha 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Faisaly FC 67% | Al-Fayha 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 30% | Draw 32% | Al-Fayha 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.16 / Al-Fayha 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.781 / def 1.220 | Al-Fayha attack 0.737 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Al-Fayha xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 29 April 2027.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 30% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Faisaly FC's attack rating (0.78) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.74x) against Al-Faisaly FC's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
30%
3.34
32%
3.12
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.49
1.33
Al-Fayha xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
8%
12.57
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.33 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Al-Faisaly FC have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 2W 4D 6L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha's form line: 2W 5D 5L from 12 games, 0.92 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Al-Faisaly FC against 0.92 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Faisaly FC have posted 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Al-Fayha in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 games (0.83 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Faisaly FC's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 0.83 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fayha won 4-1 on 31 Oct 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Al-Faisaly FC
1
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Al-Fayha 4-1 Al-Faisaly FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Faisaly FC 67%, Al-Fayha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Faisaly FC) and 50% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha in 33%; Al-Faisaly FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Fayha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's games and 50% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 50% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.