Al-Faisaly FC 2-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Faisaly FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Al-Faisaly FC welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 11 January 2022 at 14:05 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Faisaly FC — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Faisaly FC at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season: 3W 3D 2L from 8 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 1W 2D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.71 PPG. Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Al-Faisaly FC) versus 1.00 (Al-Ahli Jeddah). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Faisaly FC, 0 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Faisaly FC trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Faisaly FC 64% and Al-Ahli Jeddah 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.40 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.033 / defence 1.221 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.665 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.170. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Al-Faisaly FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Al-Faisaly FC games / 15 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 47% | Draw 29% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 4.00. Al-Faisaly FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Faisaly FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Faisaly FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Faisaly FC 75% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 43%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Jan 2022, 14:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 47% | Draw 29% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.40 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.033 / def 1.221 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.665 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Al-Faisaly FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 14:05 on Tuesday 11 January 2022 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Faisaly FC 2 - 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 47% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Faisaly FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Faisaly FC's attack at 1.03x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Faisaly FC's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Faisaly FC Win
47%
2.15
29%
3.49
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.35
0.95
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
6%
16.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 0.95 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Faisaly FC come into this having played 14 games, going 3W 6D 5L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ahli Jeddah sit at 1.00 PPG from 14 outings (3W 5D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Faisaly FC on 1.07 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Faisaly FC's home form reads 2W 3D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Faisaly FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.21 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 3W 6D 5L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 3W 5D 6L in their last 14 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Faisaly FC's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 1.29 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Faisaly FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2022, when Al-Faisaly FC 2-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Faisaly FC 71%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Al-Faisaly FC) and 29% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al-Faisaly FC's games and 43% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 29% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Faisaly FC 1.40 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.95 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.22 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.67 / defence 1.23, drawn from 14/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Faisaly FC 47% | Draw 29% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 25%, with Al-Faisaly FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Faisaly FC 50%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Faisaly FC 1.07 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.