Al-Ettifaq 0-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Damac make the trip to EGO Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League (matchday 32). The match kicks off on Saturday 17 May 2025 at 17:55 UK time.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Ettifaq have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Damac have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Damac's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Ettifaq. A 0.50 PPG lead over Damac (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq edge it 4 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Jan 2025, ended Al-Ettifaq 3–0 Damac — a Al-Ettifaq win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 51% versus Damac 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 43% | Damac 51%). Note also that Damac surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Al-Ettifaq recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.28 xG and Damac 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.816 / defence 0.941 | Damac attack 0.780 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.466. Damac's attack rating of 0.780 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 65 games and Damac's last 65.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 28% | Damac 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.43 | Draw 3.60 | Damac 3.21. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 60% (last 10 home games) | Damac 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, matchday 32 | Venue: EGO Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025 at 17:55 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 28% | Damac 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.28 / Damac 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.816 / def 0.941 | Damac attack 0.780 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Damac xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Damac FAQs
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Damac kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Damac kicked off at 17:55 UK time on Saturday 17 May 2025 at EGO Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 0 Damac.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at EGO Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Damac part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Damac is a Pro League fixture (matchday 32) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 41% chance of winning, Damac a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Damac will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.78x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Al-Ettifaq's last 65 games and Damac's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
41%
2.43
28%
3.60
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.36
1.08
Damac xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Damac Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.08 for Damac, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 24W 19D 22L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Damac's form line: 19W 18D 28L from 65 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.15 for Damac. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.28 PPG from their last 32 home games (11W 8D 13L).
On the road, Damac have gone 7W 8D 17L from their last 32 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.25 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
Damac
Current Season
Al-Ettifaq (Home) vs Damac (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
Damac
Current Season
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Damac Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 24W 19D 22L in their last 65 games (1.40 PPG), while Damac have gone 19W 18D 28L in their last 65 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Damac away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.28 PPG; Damac away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 6 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Ettifaq have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won Damac 0-3 Al-Ettifaq on 15 Jan 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
2
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Damac H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Damac?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq have won 6, Damac have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Damac last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 February 2026: Al-Ettifaq 2-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Damac?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 53%, Damac 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al-Ettifaq) and 50% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 28% of games; Damac in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Damac Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ettifaq and Damac matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 56% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Ettifaq and Damac matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 50% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Damac matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 62% of Damac's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ettifaq's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 32, as Al-Ettifaq and Damac drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.28 xG and Damac 1.08 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Damac landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.82 / defence 0.94 against Damac attack 0.78 / defence 1.01, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 28% | Damac 31%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 43%, Damac 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Damac's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.40 PPG, Damac 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.