Al-Ettifaq 3-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Ettifaq face Damac.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Damac make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Al-Ettifaq have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Damac have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Damac's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.00 for Damac. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Damac edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2023, ended Al-Ettifaq 2–0 Damac — a Al-Ettifaq win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 38% versus Damac 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 41% | Damac 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Ettifaq surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Damac have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.36 xG and Damac 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.023 / defence 0.877 | Damac attack 0.781 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.344. Damac's attack rating of 0.781 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 34 games and Damac's last 34.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 47% | Draw 28% | Damac 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.13 | Draw 3.60 | Damac 3.94. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 50% (last 10 home games) | Damac 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, matchday 5 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 47% | Draw 28% | Damac 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.36 / Damac 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.023 / def 0.877 | Damac attack 0.781 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Damac xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Damac FAQs
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Damac kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Damac kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Al-Ettifaq 3 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Damac part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Damac is a Pro League fixture (matchday 5) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 47% chance of winning, Damac a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Damac will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.78x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Al-Ettifaq's last 34 games and Damac's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.60
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.28
0.92
Damac xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
7%
15.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Damac Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.92 for Damac, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 12W 8D 14L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Damac's form line: 9W 12D 13L from 34 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.15 for Damac. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.65 PPG from their last 17 home games (8W 4D 5L).
On the road, Damac have gone 4W 5D 8L from their last 17 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.12 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Damac
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq (Home) vs Damac (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Damac
Early Season
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Damac Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 12W 8D 14L in their last 34 games (1.29 PPG), while Damac have gone 9W 12D 13L in their last 34 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Damac away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.65 PPG; Damac away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Damac in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 6 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Ettifaq have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won Damac 0-3 Al-Ettifaq on 15 Jan 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
2
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Damac H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Damac?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq have won 6, Damac have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Damac last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 February 2026: Al-Ettifaq 2-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Damac?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 47%, Damac 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al-Ettifaq) and 47% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Damac in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Damac Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ettifaq and Damac matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 53% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Ettifaq and Damac matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 47% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Damac matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 65% of Damac's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Damac 3-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.36 xG and Damac 0.92 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.02 / defence 0.88 against Damac attack 0.78 / defence 1.07, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 47% | Draw 28% | Damac 25%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 41%, Damac 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Damac's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.29 PPG, Damac 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.