Al-Ettifaq 3-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Shabab make the trip to EGO Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 31 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ettifaq have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's home record at EGO Stadium: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Al Shabab are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ettifaq lead 3W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ettifaq — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 47% versus Al Shabab 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 43% | Al Shabab 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.05 xG and Al Shabab 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.808 / defence 1.415 | Al Shabab attack 1.026 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.351. Data: 51 Al-Ettifaq games / 51 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 20% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 59%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 5.00 | Draw 4.55 | Al Shabab 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Al-Ettifaq dominate the H2H record, yet Al Shabab are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ettifaq 40% | Al Shabab 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: EGO Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 20% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.05 / Al Shabab 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.808 / def 1.415 | Al Shabab attack 1.026 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Al Shabab xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 31 January 2025 at EGO Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Al-Ettifaq 3 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at EGO Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 20% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 3W | Draws 3 | Al Shabab 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.81) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (1.03x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
20%
5.05
22%
4.62
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.01
1.96
Al Shabab xG
5.05
20%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
14%
7.11
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
3%
35.89
20%
4.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.96 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 17W 16D 18L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab's form line: 21W 10D 20L from 51 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.43 for Al Shabab. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.12 PPG from 25 outings (7W 7D 11L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 8W 6D 11L from 25 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.37 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 16D 18L in their last 51 games (1.31 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 21W 10D 20L in their last 51 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.12 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 3-0 on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
5
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Al Shabab have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Al Shabab see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 52%, Al Shabab 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al-Ettifaq) and 40% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab in 40%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 32% of games; Al Shabab in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 36% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 40% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Shabab.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Shabab 3-1 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.05 xG and Al Shabab 1.96 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Shabab landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.81 / defence 1.42 against Al Shabab attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 20% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 59%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ettifaq win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 43%, Al Shabab 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Shabab's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.31 PPG, Al Shabab 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.