Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Shabab make the trip to Al Ettifaq Club Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Thursday 23 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Al-Ettifaq's home record at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Al-Ettifaq, 1.60 for Al Shabab — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ettifaq lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ettifaq — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 42% versus Al Shabab 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 40% | Al Shabab 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 0.81 xG and Al Shabab 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.772 / defence 0.910 | Al Shabab attack 0.820 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.366. Al-Ettifaq's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Shabab's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 62 Al-Ettifaq games / 62 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 26% | Draw 37% | Al Shabab 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.85 | Draw 2.70 | Al Shabab 2.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al Shabab 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Al Ettifaq Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 26% | Draw 37% | Al Shabab 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Al-Ettifaq 0.81 / Al Shabab 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.772 / def 0.910 | Al Shabab attack 0.820 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Al Shabab xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 23 May 2024 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 0 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 26% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 37% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 1W | Draws 3 | Al Shabab 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.77) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.82x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
26%
3.83
37%
2.73
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
1.83
1.02
Al Shabab xG
3.83
26%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
9%
10.60
16%
6.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 16.3 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.02 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 21W 19D 22L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Al Shabab's form line: 28W 13D 21L from 62 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.56 for Al Shabab. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.48 PPG from 31 outings (12W 10D 9L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 11W 8D 12L from 31 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.60 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
Al Shabab
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 21W 19D 22L in their last 62 games (1.32 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 28W 13D 21L in their last 62 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.48 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 3-0 on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
5
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Al Shabab have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 52%, Al Shabab 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Al-Ettifaq) and 58% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 26% of games; Al Shabab in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 58% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 58% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Shabab 1-0 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 0.81 xG and Al Shabab 1.02 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Shabab landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.77 / defence 0.91 against Al Shabab attack 0.82 / defence 0.73, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 26% | Draw 37% | Al Shabab 37%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 40%, Al Shabab 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Shabab's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.32 PPG, Al Shabab 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.