Al-Ettifaq 0-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 50%, yet in-form Al-Ettifaq provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Al-Ettifaq host Al-Raed at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 6). Kick-off is Thursday 3 October 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ettifaq stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, Al-Ettifaq have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al-Raed — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Al-Raed's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

On current form, Al-Ettifaq have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 1 for Al-Raed and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Apr 2024, ended Al-Ettifaq 2–2 Al-Raed — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 44% versus Al-Raed 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 36% | Al-Raed 54%). Note also that Al-Raed surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Al-Ettifaq recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.00 xG and Al-Raed 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.784 / defence 0.960 | Al-Raed attack 1.284 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.261. Al-Ettifaq's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Al-Raed have an above-average attack rating of 1.284, which lifts their away xG to 1.55. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 39 games and Al-Raed's last 39.

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 24% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 50%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 4.09 | Draw 3.93 | Al-Raed 2.00. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ettifaq (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 30% (last 10 home games) | Al-Raed 70% (last 10 away games).

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