Al-Ettifaq 0-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq host Al-Raed at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ettifaq stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 6W 2D 2L at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Raed — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Al-Ettifaq have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ettifaq register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Raed in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al-Raed 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2023, ended 2–1 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 44% versus Al-Raed 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 46% | Al-Raed 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.94 xG and Al-Raed 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.152 / defence 1.043 | Al-Raed attack 0.822 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.439. Data: 41 Al-Ettifaq games / 41 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 54% | Draw 22% | Al-Raed 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Raed 4.17. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al-Raed 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 54% | Draw 22% | Al-Raed 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.94 / Al-Raed 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.152 / def 1.043 | Al-Raed attack 0.822 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al-Raed xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 54% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Raed 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Al-Raed's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
54%
1.86
22%
4.53
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.17
1.23
Al-Raed xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
14%
6.95
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
3%
28.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.23 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 16W 9D 16L from 41 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 22L across 41 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ettifaq by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Raed heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 10W 4D 6L from 20 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Raed's away record stands at 4W 6D 10L across 20 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.24 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 16W 9D 16L in their last 41 games (1.39 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 10W 9D 22L in their last 41 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.70 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Ettifaq
5
Draws
2
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al-Raed have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Al-Raed 1-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 55%, Al-Raed 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Al-Ettifaq and 65% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 55% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 65% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ettifaq's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed finished level at 0-0 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.94 xG and Al-Raed 1.23 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Al-Raed landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.15 / defence 1.04 against Al-Raed attack 0.82 / defence 1.08, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 54% | Draw 22% | Al-Raed 24%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 46%, Al-Raed 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Raed's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.