Al-Ettifaq 3-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ettifaq face Al-Qadisiyah FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.40 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Al-Ettifaq's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ettifaq register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 2 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2026, ended 0–4 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 57% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 55% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.43 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.051 / defence 0.956 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.405 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.410. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.405 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Al-Ettifaq games / 60 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 29% | Draw 22% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.45 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.08. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 29% | Draw 22% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.43 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.051 / def 0.956 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.405 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Ettifaq 3 - 2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 29% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 1.05x the league average against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
29%
3.43
22%
4.48
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.32
1.89
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
3.43
29%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
15%
6.65
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
4%
22.78
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.89 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 60 games, going 25W 14D 21L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.13 PPG from 60 outings (39W 11D 10L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 11W 7D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 1.90 points per game from 29 outings (17W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.92 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 25W 14D 21L in their last 60 games (1.48 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 39W 11D 10L in their last 60 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.38 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 3-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 52%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al-Ettifaq) and 59% (Al-Qadisiyah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 31%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 59% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 59% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-2 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.43 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.89 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.41 / defence 0.89, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 29% | Draw 22% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 55%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with Al-Ettifaq winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.