Al-Ettifaq 2-3 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Kholood at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Al Kholood travel to EGO Stadium to take on Al-Ettifaq. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 January 2025, 14:40 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ettifaq stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at EGO Stadium, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Kholood have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood away from home this season: 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ettifaq 0.60 PPG, Al Kholood 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al Kholood in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 46% versus Al Kholood 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 46% | Al Kholood 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.02 xG and Al Kholood 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.713 / defence 1.277 | Al Kholood attack 0.806 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.365. Al-Ettifaq's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Al-Ettifaq games / 13 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 27% | Draw 27% | Al Kholood 46%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Al Kholood 2.17. Al Kholood hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Kholood as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Kholood offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 30% | Al Kholood 71%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: EGO Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Jan 2025, 14:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 27% | Draw 27% | Al Kholood 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.02 / Al Kholood 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.713 / def 1.277 | Al Kholood attack 0.806 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Al Kholood (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Al Kholood xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood kicked off at 14:40 on Friday 10 January 2025 at EGO Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood?
Al-Ettifaq 2 - 3 Al Kholood.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at EGO Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 27% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Kholood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Kholood?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Kholood in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Al Kholood (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Al Kholood's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Kholood Win
27%
3.65
27%
3.72
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.42
1.40
Al Kholood xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
7%
14.87
16%
6.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.40 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 4W 3D 6L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Kholood's form line: 2W 4D 7L from 13 games, 0.77 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.15 PPG, Al Kholood on 0.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 0.50 PPG from 6 outings (1W 0D 5L). That actually lags their 1.15 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Al Kholood have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.77 PPG overall record — Al Kholood travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Kholood come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.15 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Kholood in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 2W 4D 7L in their last 13 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Kholood away?
Al Kholood's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 0.50 PPG; Al Kholood away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ettifaq have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al Kholood specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
0
Draws
2
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Kholood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al Kholood have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Al Kholood 1-2 Al-Ettifaq.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 17%, Al Kholood 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ettifaq) and 33% (Al Kholood).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Kholood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 67% of Al Kholood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 33% of Al Kholood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Kholood edge out Al-Ettifaq 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Kholood beat Al-Ettifaq 2-3 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.02 xG and Al Kholood 1.40 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Kholood outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.71 / defence 1.28 against Al Kholood attack 0.81 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 27% | Draw 27% | Al Kholood 46%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 46%, Al Kholood 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Al Kholood's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.15 PPG, Al Kholood 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Kholood (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.