Al-Ettifaq 2-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ettifaq (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ettifaq face Al Khaleej Saihat.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
EGO Stadium plays host to Al-Ettifaq versus Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Friday 2 May 2025 at 16:50 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at EGO Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at EGO Stadium this season.
Al Khaleej Saihat's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Al-Ettifaq's favour (1.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ettifaq lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 2–1 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ettifaq — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Al Khaleej Saihat — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 51% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 43% | Al Khaleej Saihat 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.32 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.786 / defence 0.995 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.901 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.402. Al-Ettifaq's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Al-Ettifaq games / 63 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 38% | Draw 28% | Al Khaleej Saihat 35%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al Khaleej Saihat 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: EGO Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 May 2025, 16:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 38% | Draw 28% | Al Khaleej Saihat 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.32 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.786 / def 0.995 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.901 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 16:50 on Friday 2 May 2025 at EGO Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ettifaq 2 - 1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at EGO Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 38% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 3W | Draws 1 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.79x the league average against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (0.90x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
38%
2.66
28%
3.62
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.58
1.26
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
11%
9.36
9%
10.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.26 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 23W 19D 21L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form line: 18W 17D 28L from 63 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.13 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.23 PPG from 31 outings (10W 8D 13L).
On the road, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 11W 7D 13L from 31 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.11 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 23W 19D 21L in their last 63 games (1.40 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 18W 17D 28L in their last 63 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.23 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al Khaleej Saihat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-5 on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 5, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 52%, Al Khaleej Saihat 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Al-Ettifaq) and 52% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 29% of games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 58% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 52% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Khaleej Saihat 2-1 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.32 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.26 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.79 / defence 0.99 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.90 / defence 1.12, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 38% | Draw 28% | Al Khaleej Saihat 35%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 43%, Al Khaleej Saihat 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.40 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.