Al-Ettifaq 5-2 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Al-Hazm travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al-Ettifaq. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 May 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ettifaq at 0.90 PPG versus Al-Hazm's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al-Hazm 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 3–0 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Hazm trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 50% versus Al-Hazm 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 54% | Al-Hazm 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.10 xG and Al-Hazm 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.736 / defence 1.214 | Al-Hazm attack 0.560 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.200. Al-Ettifaq's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hazm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Al-Ettifaq's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Al-Ettifaq games / 26 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 31% | Al-Hazm 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Hazm 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al-Hazm 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 31% | Al-Hazm 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.10 / Al-Hazm 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.736 / def 1.214 | Al-Hazm attack 0.560 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Al-Hazm xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Ettifaq 5 - 2 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 42% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
42%
2.39
31%
3.20
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
1.91
0.81
Al-Hazm xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 12.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.81 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 6W 9D 11L from 26 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 17L across 26 games — 0.65 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.04 PPG, Al-Hazm on 0.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 3W 5D 5L from 13 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 1W 1D 11L across 13 trips, a 0.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.69 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 6W 9D 11L in their last 26 games (1.04 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 4W 5D 17L in their last 26 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.08 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Nov 2021, when Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
1
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al-Hazm have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al-Hazm 3-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 54%, Al-Hazm 23% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al-Ettifaq) and 31% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 31% of games; Al-Hazm in 69%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 23% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 31% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ettifaq run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Hazm 5-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.10 xG and Al-Hazm 0.81 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hazm outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.74 / defence 1.21 against Al-Hazm attack 0.56 / defence 1.23, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 31% | Al-Hazm 27%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 54%, Al-Hazm 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.04 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.