Al-Ettifaq 0-4 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al-Fateh to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 22 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's home record at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Al-Ettifaq) versus 1.10 (Al-Fateh). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Ettifaq, 2 for Al-Fateh and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2023, ended 0–2 with Al-Fateh winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 46% versus Al-Fateh 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 49% | Al-Fateh 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.31 xG and Al-Fateh 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.898 / defence 0.774 | Al-Fateh attack 1.028 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.238. Al-Ettifaq's defence rating of 0.774 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Al-Ettifaq games / 57 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 44% | Draw 28% | Al-Fateh 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Fateh 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 30% | Al-Fateh 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 22 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 44% | Draw 28% | Al-Fateh 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.31 / Al-Fateh 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.898 / def 0.774 | Al-Fateh attack 1.028 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Al-Fateh xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 22 May 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 4 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 44% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 2W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.90x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.58
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.30
0.99
Al-Fateh xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
8%
13.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.99 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 17W 16D 24L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh's form line: 21W 11D 25L from 57 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.18 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.43 PPG from 28 outings (11W 7D 10L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 10W 6D 12L from 28 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.54 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 16D 24L in their last 57 games (1.18 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 21W 11D 25L in their last 57 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.43 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 19 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
7
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 4-3 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 50%, Al-Fateh 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ettifaq) and 54% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 46% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 54% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Fateh run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al-Ettifaq 0-4 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.31 xG and Al-Fateh 0.99 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Fateh outscored their 0.99 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.90 / defence 0.77 against Al-Fateh attack 1.03 / defence 0.99, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 44% | Draw 28% | Al-Fateh 28%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al-Fateh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 49%, Al-Fateh 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.18 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.