Al-Ettifaq 1-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al-Fateh to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 5 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's home record at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Fateh have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Al-Ettifaq.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2023, ended 0–4 with Al-Fateh winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Fateh have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 42% versus Al-Fateh 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 45% | Al-Fateh 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.94 xG and Al-Fateh 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.242 / defence 1.016 | Al-Fateh attack 1.199 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.432. Data: 38 Al-Ettifaq games / 38 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 43% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 35%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Fateh 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Al-Fateh lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Ettifaq carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.69 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al-Fateh 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 43% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.94 / Al-Fateh 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.242 / def 1.016 | Al-Fateh attack 1.199 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Al-Fateh xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 5 October 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 2 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 43% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 35% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 3W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 1.24x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
43%
2.32
22%
4.64
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.69
1.75
Al-Fateh xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.41
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
14%
6.96
Win to Nil
8%
13.28
5%
19.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.75 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 15W 9D 14L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh's form line: 17W 6D 15L from 38 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.42 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.79 PPG from 19 outings (10W 4D 5L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 9W 2D 8L from 19 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.79 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 17W 6D 15L in their last 38 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.79 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ettifaq have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ettifaq
0
Draws
7
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al-Fateh have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 53%, Al-Fateh 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Al-Ettifaq and 84% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 58% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 84% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fateh defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al-Ettifaq 1-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.94 xG and Al-Fateh 1.75 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.24 / defence 1.02 against Al-Fateh attack 1.20 / defence 1.02, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 43% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 35%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al-Fateh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 45%, Al-Fateh 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.42 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.