Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al-Ettifaq. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 March 2022, 16:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ettifaq stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ettifaq 1.00 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–4 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 57% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 57% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 0.90 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.724 / defence 1.288 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.748 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.212. Al-Ettifaq's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Al-Ettifaq games / 22 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 27% | Draw 32% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Mar 2022, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 27% | Draw 32% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Al-Ettifaq 0.90 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.724 / def 1.288 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.748 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 16:45 on Friday 4 March 2022 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 27% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.72) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
27%
3.68
32%
3.11
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.07
1.17
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
8%
11.81
16%
6.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 14.7 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.17 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 4W 8D 9L from 21 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 5W 9D 7L across 21 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 0.95 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 2W 4D 4L from 10 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 2W 4D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.29 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 8D 9L in their last 21 games (0.95 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 5W 9D 7L in their last 21 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2021, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
3
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 60%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ettifaq) and 30% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 30% of games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 50% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 30% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 0.90 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.17 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ahli Jeddah landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.72 / defence 1.29 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.75 / defence 1.08, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 27% | Draw 32% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 41%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 57%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 0.95 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.