Al-Ettifaq 0-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium to take on Al-Ettifaq. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 September 2025, 16:25 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ettifaq stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ettifaq 1.80 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2025, ended 3–1 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 60% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 54% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.36 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.979 / defence 0.884 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.002 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.584. Data: 35 Al-Ettifaq games / 35 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 36% | Draw 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 38%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 Sep 2025, 16:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 36% | Draw 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.36 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.979 / def 0.884 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.002 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.584 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 16:25 on Friday 12 September 2025 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 36% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.98) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
36%
2.76
25%
3.92
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.76
1.40
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
9%
11.25
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.40 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 15W 8D 12L from 35 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 22W 4D 9L across 35 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 6W 2D 9L from 17 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 10W 1D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.00 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 15W 8D 12L in their last 35 games (1.51 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 22W 4D 9L in their last 35 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.18 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2021, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
3
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 53%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Al-Ettifaq) and 41% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 35%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 41% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 41% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ettifaq's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah finished level at 0-0 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.36 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.40 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Ahli Jeddah landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.98 / defence 0.88 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 36% | Draw 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 38%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 54%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.51. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.