Al Baten 2-3 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Baten and Al-Ittihad FC meet at Al-Batin FC Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Friday 31 December 2021 at 11:10 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Baten have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Baten have posted 3W 2D 2L at Al-Batin FC Stadium — 1.57 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.57 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al Baten are significantly better at Al-Batin FC Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 1L across 5 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Al-Ittihad FC are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Al Baten goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 31% versus Al-Ittihad FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Baten 31% | Al-Ittihad FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 0.99 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.854 / defence 1.228 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.954 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.054. Data: 14 Al Baten games / 13 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Baten 29% | Draw 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Baten 29% | Al-Ittihad FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 Dec 2021, 11:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 29% | Draw 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Al Baten 0.99 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 0.854 / def 1.228 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.954 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Al-Ittihad FC xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 11:10 on Friday 31 December 2021 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Baten 2 - 3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 29% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Baten and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Ittihad FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Baten and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Baten (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Baten's attack at 0.85x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (0.95x) against Al Baten's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 14/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
29%
3.45
30%
3.33
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Al Baten xG
Total xG
2.23
1.24
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.3 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Al Baten and 1.24 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Baten's recent record stands at 3W 5D 5L from 13 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 9W 2D 2L across 13 games — 2.23 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 1.15 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Baten heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Baten have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Al Baten are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 3W 1D 1L across 5 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al Baten are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.00 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 3W 5D 5L in their last 13 games (1.08 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 9W 2D 2L in their last 13 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.60 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al Baten or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Baten have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Al-Ittihad FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Baten have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Baten
1
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al Baten and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 20%, Al-Ittihad FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al Baten) and 40% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al Baten keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Al Baten have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Al Baten's recent matches and 60% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al Baten's recent games and 40% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Baten and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Baten 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Baten 2-3 at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 0.99 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.24 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al Baten beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 29% | Draw 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 41%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 31%, Al-Ittihad FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Baten (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.