Al Baten 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC make the trip to Al-Batin FC Stadium to face Al Baten in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 21 January 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Al Baten (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Baten's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 3L across 9 games at Al-Batin FC Stadium this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 3W 4D 0L from 7 away outings — 1.86 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 0.90 PPG clear of Al Baten in recent Pro League fixtures (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Baten lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al Baten — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 31% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Baten 31% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 0.96 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.817 / defence 1.170 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.243 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.184. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.243 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 17 Al Baten games / 16 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Baten 20% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 5.00 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Al Baten 33% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 86% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jan 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 20% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Al Baten 0.96 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 0.817 / def 1.170 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.243 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 21 January 2022 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Baten 1 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 20% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Baten and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al Baten 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0W.
What form are Al Baten and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Baten (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Baten's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.24x) against Al Baten's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 17/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
20%
4.96
25%
3.96
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Al Baten xG
Total xG
2.68
1.72
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
4.96
20%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
4%
27.76
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.8 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Al Baten and 1.72 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Baten come into this having played 16 games, going 3W 6D 7L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit at 1.88 PPG from 16 outings (8W 6D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Al Baten — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Baten's home form reads 2W 3D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken 1.86 points per game from 7 outings (3W 4D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Baten are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 1.75 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 3W 6D 7L in their last 16 games (0.94 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 8W 6D 2L in their last 16 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.29 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Al Baten or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Baten have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Baten have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Baten
2
Draws
1
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2023, when Al Baten 1-0 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 29%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al Baten) and 57% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al Baten keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Al Baten have failed to score in 57% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 29% of Al Baten's games and 86% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al Baten's recent games and 57% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Baten and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Baten and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Al Baten and Al-Hilal Saudi FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 0.96 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.72 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 0.82 / defence 1.17 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.24 / defence 1.06, drawn from 17/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 20% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 31%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.