Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-2 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Al Taawon to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 4W 0D 1L from 5 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 0L across 3 games at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taawon have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ahli Jeddah at 2.40 PPG versus Al Taawon's 2.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 0 for Al Taawon and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% versus Al Taawon 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Al Taawon 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.01 xG and Al Taawon 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.056 / defence 0.881 | Al Taawon attack 0.989 / defence 0.679. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.426. Al Taawon's defence strength of 0.679 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 5 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 35 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Al Taawon 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ahli Jeddah 33% | Al Taawon 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.01 / Al Taawon 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.056 / def 0.881 | Al Taawon attack 0.989 / def 0.679 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.426 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Al Taawon xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3 - 2 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 30% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W | Draws 2 | Al Taawon 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 4W-0D-1L in 5 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack at 1.06x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
30%
3.34
28%
3.51
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.25
1.24
Al Taawon xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
9%
11.57
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.24 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record stands at 4W 0D 1L from 5 games, a 2.40 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 0L across 5 games — 2.60 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ahli Jeddah on 2.40 PPG, Al Taawon on 2.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ahli Jeddah have managed 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.40 PPG overall — Al-Ahli Jeddah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 2W 1D 0L across 3 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.80 scored and 0.40 conceded. Al-Ahli Jeddah's scoring rate against Al Taawon's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Al Taawon in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 games (2.40 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 (2.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 3.00 PPG; Al Taawon away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
0
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6, Al Taawon have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Al Taawon 1-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Ahli Jeddah 33% BTTS, Al Taawon 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0% for Al Taawon.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Al Taawon in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 33% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 0% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ahli Jeddah defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Taawon 3-2 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.01 xG and Al Taawon 1.24 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.06 / defence 0.88 against Al Taawon attack 0.99 / defence 0.68, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 42%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al-Ahli Jeddah win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%, Al Taawon 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (5 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taawon's trading profile (5 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.40 PPG, Al Taawon 2.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.