Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-1 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Abha meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 4W 3D 3L at King Abdullah Sports City — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Abha (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1.40 for Abha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1 for Abha and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Abha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Abha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 65% versus Abha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% | Abha 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.69 xG and Abha 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.080 / defence 1.251 | Abha attack 0.723 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.257. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 26 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Draw 24% | Abha 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Abha 3.85. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% | Abha 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Draw 24% | Abha 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.69 / Abha 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.080 / def 1.251 | Abha attack 0.723 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Abha xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 1 Abha.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 50% chance of winning, Abha a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Abha?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W | Draws 0 | Abha 1W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Abha in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Abha (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack at 1.08x the league average against Abha's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Abha's attack (0.72x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
50%
1.99
24%
4.15
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.83
1.14
Abha xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
5%
21.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.14 for Abha, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record stands at 6W 11D 9L from 26 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Abha, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 11L across 26 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 1.27 for Abha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Ahli Jeddah have managed 4W 5D 3L from 12 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Abha's away record stands at 2W 2D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 6W 11D 9L in their last 26 games (1.12 PPG), while Abha have gone 9W 6D 11L in their last 26 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Abha away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 1.42 PPG; Abha away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-6 on 30 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Abha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
1
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Abha?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 2, Abha have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 5-1 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Abha?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 75%, Abha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 50% (Abha).
On the defensive side: Abha in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Abha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 50% of Abha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 50% of Abha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Abha in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Abha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Abha finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.69 xG and Abha 1.14 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.08 / defence 1.25 against Abha attack 0.72 / defence 1.28, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Draw 24% | Abha 26%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 38%, Abha 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Abha's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.12 PPG, Abha 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Abha (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.